Retail inflation at 9-month low; rate hike seems unlikely

Daniel Fowler
August 16, 2018

As the pound has recovered, inflation once again started to fall, dropping from 3% at the end of 2017 to 2.4% last month.

Inflation numbers from July 2017 till June 2018 had adverse base effect due to GST... which had led to inflation increasing at a faster pace.

On month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 1.13 per cent in July 2018, down by 0.11 per cent points from 1.24 per cent recorded in June 2018; representing the first month on month headline inflation decline since February 2018.

The price of a typical United Kingdom house is now around £228,400, a £1,000 increase on the previous month.

Wales saw average house prices increase by 4.3 per cent over the previous 12 months to stand at £157,000.

'However, the figures for June show that the price of new build properties shot up 9.6 per cent on an annual basis to £294,070, 3.8 per cent higher than in the previous month.

Economic Affairs Secretary S C Garg said that all macroeconomic parameters are performing well.

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Mashal said there were more than 100 other casualties but he could not give a breakdown of the dead and wounded. Power has been cut to Ghazni since the fighting erupted, with communications in the area appearing to be down.

"If the recent depreciation of the INR sustains, it may modestly feed into the CPI inflation over the near term".

Meanwhile the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation fell to 3.2%. "The deteriorating external situation could be a big factor that influences the MPC even as they closely watch the inflation trajectory going forward", he said.

India Ratings and Research's (Ind-Ra) Chief Economist and Senior Director (Public Finance) Devendra Pant said: "This is nine month lowest retail inflation".

CPIH, the ONS' preferred method of measuring inflation was at 2.3% in July, unchanged from the previous month.

The average United Kingdom house price was £228,000 in June - £1,000 higher than in May and £6,000 higher than in June 2017. A Reuters poll of economists had predicted the inflation to come at 4.51 per cent.

By property type, semi-detached houses showed the biggest increase, rising by 4.4 per cent in the year to June 2018 to £216,000. "Crude oil prices continue to display a volatile trend, driven by geopolitical risks and concerns regarding supply as well as demand in various parts of the world", Ms Nayar added.

The prices for the data are collected from selected towns by the Field Operations Division of NSSO and from selected villages by the Department of Posts.

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