NHC: System in the Gulf of Mexico could become Tropical Storm Nestor

Katie Ramirez
October 17, 2019

It is expected to impact the Gulf Coast Friday evening into Saturday morning and become a tropical or subtropical storm named Nestor.

The system in question gathering some organization over the Bay of Campeche.

The NHC gives the storm a 90 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours.

Systems that develop with the help of the jet stream often start out as subtropical depressions or storms because there is cold air aloft involved, in addition to the energy from the warm water of the Gulf.

It's worth pointing out the difference in the two precipitation total models which show the change in impacts from a small shift to east or west from the storm, either way it looks like Acadiana will be in the clear.

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The good news, upper winds will prevent it from reaching hurricane strength, but unfortunately it accelerates quickly toward the Florida panhandle sending rain our way Saturday.

Models are increasingly confident that the storm will impact portions of Louisiana, coastal MS and Alabama, as well as the Panhandle and Big Bend of Florida.

This system is "unlikely ..."

The low-pressure system is bringing heavy rain with the risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of southern Mexico and Central America. If the weather system strengthens into a tropical storm it would have the name "Nestor".

Like many landfalling tropical systems, this one has a chance of producing tornadoes as well.

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