Here's NOAA's 2019-2020 winter weather forecast

Katie Ramirez
October 18, 2019

NOAA's outlook suggests Kentucky has a 33% chance of seeing average temperatures. A region beginning at NY and extending west to Montana was expected to have a wetter than usual winter. However, that's not as predictable as far out as El Niño/La Niña - only a couple of weeks in advance.

You can read NOAA's report here. He says predicting long-term winter weather is especially hard during the neutral phase of the El Nino.

As the Climate Prediction Center has pointed out, "in the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter".

Drought conditions are expected to improve in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii.

NOAA's predictions, which include conditions for December through February, said there's a 40 to 50% chance that New England would experience a warmer winter than usual. When ocean temperatures are cooler than average, it can lead to cooler and wetter conditions.

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While the temperature outlook has most of the north-central part of the country seeing normal temperatures this winter, warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely for most of the rest of the nation.

Portions of California, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and MS are expected to have drier than normal winter months. "The remainder of the USA falls into the category of equal chances for below, near, or above-average precipitation". To me, that looks a lot like an Alberta Clipper track. The National Weather Service in Boston warned people for plenty of cold and snow this winter, despite the predictions. It'll be interesting to see how the storm track develops!

Overall, no part of the country is forecast to have a high likelihood of below-average temperatures between December and February.

El Nino is warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America. The bottom line is to remember that this outlook is a three-month average.

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