Traders Being Played by Ever-changing Trade Deal News

Daniel Fowler
November 16, 2019

-China trade deal. Speaking at a D.C. event for the Council on Foreign Relations Thursday, he said an agreement has not yet been made, but President Trump "likes what he sees".

Europe's main bourses and Wall Street futures followed Asia higher [.EU] [.N] after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday that the United States and China were nearing a deal and talking every day.

The dollar fell 0.26% against the euro and 0.24% against the British pound, at $1.105 and $1.291 respectively.

"We are coming down to the short strokes", Kudlow said.

Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said in an email that "the Dow approaching the psychologically important 28,000 level is yet another sign that investors are regaining confidence in the pending trade truce with China".

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell 5/32 in price to push yields up to 1.8342%. Its emerging markets index .MSCIEF rose 0.67%.

In currencies, the safe-haven yen weakened, with the dollar rising 0.3% to buy 108.73 yen.

Man, juvenile shot at New Jersey high school football game
Tyner, the prosecutor, told The Associated Press the shooting took place on the Pleasantville side of the bleachers. Because it is an ongoing investigation, Riggin could not provide any further information about the incident.

A Reuters poll of more than 100 economists showed that while concerns have eased over a USA recession, few see an economic rebound, and most believe a trade truce is unlikely in the coming year.

He also opened the door to the possibility that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would not need to meet in person to clinch a deal.

Economic data show the uncertainty created by the dispute between the world's two biggest economies is undermining global growth.

"The belief is that perhaps, even though the numbers in the United States are barely expansionary ... the fact that China is slowing down means that there is perhaps economic leverage on the USA side and that China will sign on to whatever", said Juan Perez, senior foreign exchange trader and strategist at Tempus Inc. The government estimates American producers will be able to export more than US$1 billion worth of poultry to China annually, he said.

The S&P 500 posted its sixth straight weekly gain, the longest such streak since late 2017.

In commodity markets, USA crude prices seesawed after sliding Thursday on rising US crude inventories.

US gold futures settled down 0.3% at $1,468.50 per ounce.

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