The latest coronavirus numbers from UW’s prediction model

Grant Boone
April 7, 2020

The new number of expected deaths is 81,766, with a higher range of 136,401 and a lower range of 49,431, according to U.S. News and World Report.

The models change daily, with extra data from deaths and infections making them increasingly accurate, Murray said. According to IHME, its initial projections on March 26 were based on the only city that had seen its daily deaths peak by then: Wuhan City.

The revised projections also highlight the difficulty of predicting the behavior of the virus, even as New York City and other jurisdictions are being inundated.

Dr. Chris Murray, director of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said there's evidence that King and Snohomish counties have peaked but the rest of the state has not. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, are among the top state and national officials who have cited it when talking about projected figures related to the virus outbreak. After originally projecting that Tennessee would be one of only nine states in the US where health care capacity would not be overwhelmed as the outbreak peaked, the model revised its projections to predict that Tennessee would have severe shortages of overall hospital beds and ICU beds, and that 135 Tennesseans would die per day as the disease peaks later this month.

A coronavirus projection used by the White House to warn that the country could face between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in a "best case scenario" has dramatically reduced its estimates, cutting the number of hospital beds needed by 58 percent and the death forecast by 12 percent. Total hospitalizations are also down in the new model.

That peak is also supposed to be reached much earlier - April 19 instead of May 6. The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak.

CDC: Minors less likely to contract COVID-19
Relatively few children with COVID-19 ended up in the hospital, and fewer still required intensive care. Children ages 1-17 had a lower estimated range of hospitalization, from 4.1%-14%.

Regarding deaths from the virus, the Institute's previous general analysis still stands; however, the highest estimates are lower.

"Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days", Murray said. Its most recent projections showed a sharp drop in transmission of COVID-19 in OR, by as much as 70%.

"These projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus", he said.

The research shows that social distancing is likely contributing to the improved numbers. "So tremendously good news at some level that it's not just Italian and Spanish communities that are able to have social distancing work". The advisory prompted a number of governors to either extend social distancing mandates or recommendations and others to announce stay at home orders for the first time.

"But I think we are still in the rising days of this pandemic and we need to keep our guard up and we need to be prepared".

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