Annual EIA Report Says Oil DemandH as Peaked (Again)

Daniel Fowler
October 15, 2020

Ghana is among a handful of countries that are "on track to achieve universal access to electricity" by 2030, according to the World Energy Outlook 2020 published, on Tuesday, by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA calls for a "surge" in well-designed energy policies to overcome disruption and uncertainty, in order to get back on track for a resilient future energy system that can meet worldwide climate goals by the agreed deadlines - it predicts global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related carbon emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%.

The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to nearly 30 percent in 2030 from eight percent in 2019, the scenario outlined, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12 percent a year.

The advance of renewable sources of generation, and of solar in particular, as well as the contribution of nuclear power, is much stronger in the stated policies scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case. Hydropower remains the largest renewable source, but solar is the primary source of growth, followed by onshore and offshore wind.

Maturing technology and government support mechanisms have cut financing costs for major solar PV projects, the IEA said, helping to bring down output costs overall.

They highlighted however that the transformation of electricity to renewables could impact the supply due to the risk of outdated electrical grids.

Despite the upticks in solar and wind, carbon emissions are expected to pick up in 2021.

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The COVID-19 crisis has also acted as a catalyst for the decline of coal. Coal is forecast to fall below 20% of the global energy mix by 2040 for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. Yet, as reported by S&P Global Platts, China's crude oil imports ended their downtrend to gain 5.5% at 11.85 million barrels per day in September from a 4-month low of 11.23 million barrels per day in August, but the recovery looked temporary amid less new arrivals in October, port sources and refiners said on October 13.Ok, temporary, maybe like peak oil was. "But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline".

In fact, he continued, "Based on today's policy settings, a global economic rebound would soon push oil demand back to pre-crisis levels". Demand for fuel has collapsed as a result.

The pandemic has had the greatest impact on people in the poorest parts of the world.

"Only faster structural changes to the way we produce and consume energy can break the emissions trend for good", said IEA executive director, Fatih Birol.

The acceleration of clean energy transitions, and how quickly energy and climate goals are reached, will depend on how governments respond to today's challenges, the biggest being the Covid-19 crisis, the World Energy Outlook 2020 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests.

The report urges world leaders to make a positive decision to reduce carbon emissions in future energy deals.

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